DALLAS MORNING NEWS
Dallas is missing a major marketing opportunity. Yes, we have mild winters. Yes, our state has no income tax. Yes, we have the Dallas Cowboys and the State Fair of Texas.
But perhaps the biggest lure for new residents might be the following:
"Dear resident of Baltimore (or Washington, Detroit or Boston): Tired of out-of-control crime? Move your business and your family to Dallas, where the winters are warmer, the Cowboys have new digs, and the city is safer. Big Tex says: 'Y'all Come!' "
We could mail the same invitation to another 15 cities that, like those listed above, have populations of 250,000 or more. In fact, we could mail this letter to the residents of 268 of the cities whose crime rates are reported in the FBI's annual crime statistics – all the way down to the 245 residents of Bates City, Mo.
I can hear their reaction now: "Hey! I thought Dallas was one of the most dangerous cities in the United States!" Dallas residents might be equally confounded – especially given the recent barrage of campaign ads implying that life and limb are in imminent danger.
As a trained criminologist, I would never say that crime is not a real and serious problem. It is – which is exactly why it's so important that we respond with thoughtful debate and carefully crafted solutions rather than inaccuracies and hype.
So how dangerous is Dallas? As with the North Texas weather, it depends on where you're standing when you ask.
In 2005, the latest year for which figures are available, Dallas had the third-highest crime rate among cities of at least 500,000 (the crimes the FBI tabulates include murder, rape, assault, robbery, burglary, vehicle theft and other thefts like burglary of a vehicle). It would appear that Dallas is a very dangerous place.
However, much of that ranking was driven by property crimes. For violent crimes, Dallas ranked eighth. An extremely high incidence of burglaries – three times the rate in Los Angeles and twice the rate in Chicago – drove its overall ranking. If we include cities of 250,000 or more residents, Dallas ranked 20th for violent crimes.
Clearly, careful cross-city comparisons give a better understanding of the nature of our "crime problem." More importantly still, we need to analyze the disparities in crime rates within the city. Crime isn't bad everywhere in Dallas. In fact, crime is relatively low almost everywhere in Dallas.
The map above shows areas outlined in gray. While the city's overall crime rate in 2005 was 8,484 per 100,000 residents, inside the gray areas the crime rate was nearly four times that. The 37,000 residents of those two areas are 3 percent of the city's population but suffered 10 percent of the violent crimes and 11 percent of the property crimes.
If we look only at the crimes occurring outside the gray areas, the crime rate drops to 7,850 per 100,000 residents. With that crime rate, Dallas wouldn't make the top 500 on the FBI's list of roughly 8,100 cities and towns.
I submit that Dallas does not have an extraordinary crime problem. Certain Dallas neighborhoods have extraordinary crime problems. Yes, the Police Department needs more officers. In 2003, the city's department employed half the number of officers per resident as New York, Chicago, Philadelphia and Washington, to name a few.
But more cops, whether 300, 500, or thousands, is not a sufficient answer. We need real strategies that represent more than a coat of paint. We must, as a city, come together to embrace the strengths and confront the weaknesses of the fabric of life in Dallas' neighborhoods.
Do the police play a role in the solutions that follow? Without a doubt, they do. But we must pool our talents, within and without city government, and address the real problems that face the 37,000 residents living in the city's highest crime neighborhoods.
Dr. Timothy Bray is associate director of the J. McDonald Williams Institute, the research arm of The Foundation for Community Empowerment. His e-mail address is tbray@thewilliamsinstitute.org.